The shorter estimated lifespans are generally for power semiconductors,
especially bipolars, where damage occurs right at the P-N junction.
Estimates for dense ICs seem to be longer, in the range of 50-200
years, but I don't know if this includes 3 GHz processors
(electromigration?).
I have no idea. And, as I said, I was unable to find current data. I
have one data point though from observation: A bunch of Netgear GA302T
Gigabit cards. They were running at around 60C (heatsink temperature,
maybe 80C chip temperature)and the first failed after 2 years, now it
is 15/22 failed after about 3.5 years. (Incitentially Netgear never
replaced them, despite a 5 year warranty.)
If I assume 3 years average lifetime for these and scale down to 30C,
I get 100 years @ 30C, so you might be quite right about the 50-200
year figure.
I also had one likely termal failure of a chipset in the same PCs,
were the chipset runs at maybe 60C. That would have 12 years average
lifetime, assuming 100 years @ 30.
Ok, I agree with you about the 50-200 years, but at 25C or so.
I don't think the dreating has changed, since there is no reason
for it to. But the base lifetime seems to have gone up significantly.
Today you often get something like 5 years at 80C or so, if you get any
information at all. The 30 year point would then be around 50C. [...]
Nonsense, and a large sample of any electronic equipment will almost
always show more failures among the electrolytic capacitors than the
semiconductors. For equipment at least 10 years old, it's common for
most of its electrolytics to have slightly high ESR and none of the P-N
junctions of the power semiconductors to have excessive leakage.
I don't dispute that. The problem is low-quality capacitors combined
with a different ageing mode.
It's not just low-qualtiy capacitors but even Japanese brands, like
Rubycon and Sanyo. In my 20-30-year-old TVs, I've replaced only 1
semiconductor (vertical output module) but several electrolytics, and I
doubt this is atypical for such old products.
Not surprising. After 20-30 years even an unused electrolyte
capacitor fails. I thought you were talking about 5 years or so.
Basically if you use ceramics and modern foil, they cam match
the semiconuctors. Electrolytes are a cheap alternative
with limited lifetime.
Arno