Smartphone sales rocket versus PDAs - End of the PDAs?

[asj]

Bank lady: "Your credit balance is negative"
You: "Last time I checked, there were lots of money on my account!"
Bank Lady: "Check again"
You: "I just did. Last years figures say that my balance is positive"
...

You have to find newer numbers to support your claim!

/Keld Laursen

no, you have to find ANY numbers to support your view (and i am
relatively agnostic to both platforms and would welcome such
info)....however, there is little chance those number will change that
dramatically in 1.5 years, especially since many more palm os handhelds
are shipped and sold every month than windows handhelds.

 

[asj]

Wow! 1156%? That's a lot.

I am shipping a new product next week. My bet is that I will have a shipment
rocket a fair "lazy eight" % during the first sale alone;
from 0 to one product sold.

In order to really look at those percentages, you have to compare markets
that are equally mature.

so you're saying the few million handhelds sold per year is in a market
that is relatively mature...well, that actually sucks even more!

notice that smartphone shipments ALREADY outsell handhelds by a lot in
terms of ABSOLUTE NUMBERS (so your example is worth exactly horsesh*&t),
AND it's a less mature market than handhelds AND it's growing a hell lot
faster too.

 

[asj]

No I don't. I didn't claim anything at all. I just saw that you referred
back to some age-old survey, which might be invalid today.

"age old"? are you on cr*ck or something? it's only mid-2003 (unless i'm
speaking to someone from 2010 AD or thereabouts) - the survey was
released last year, 2002 (for the entire 2001 period - which is just 1.5
years ago). now, how exactly is that "age-old"? get a grip, dude. just
as then more palm handhelds are sold than windows handhelds TODAY, so
THAT hasn't changed either...what factor exactly would you cite as
having enough impact to dramatically change the landscape and completely
reverse the stat?

 

[asj]

One thing I have noticed is that anything phone-related (smartphones, color
phones, advanced phones, el cheapo phones) will sell BIG if the price is low
enough. Lots of cellular companies subsidise the terminals (phones) in an
attempt to gain new customers. This boosts sales in an artificial manner.
Try lowring the prices of high-end PDA's around 1/3 and low end PDA's by 2/3
or more, even selling af $0.49 from time to time.
That is bound to boost sales a great deal.

/Keld Laursen

when motorola first sold its i95cl handsets (color, java, NO camera)
earlier this year, it sold for about $300+ (i forget, maybe it's
actually $400)...and yet the thing sold out within the first few weeks
and is still one of their best selling phones...it was an overpriced
piece of cr*p, but people bought the toy anyways.

face it, handhelds are mostly geek toys (not that i'm complaining much,
i've bought handhelds since 1998) that do not appeal to the broader
population, whereas CELLPHONES are something every teenager and their
mother has got to have. you got camera,color games, and wifi on that?
way more cool!

the broader point of course, is that it really does not matter whether
smartphones are sold cheaper than handhelds or not...it's not the route
that matters, it's the destination.....they are much more pervasive than
handhelds, and with handsets gaining slowly the functionality of PDAs,
they will surely cut into future handheld sales as the market converges.

 

[asj]

I'll agree that during 'short term' (whatever that is), the
numbers may not change drastically, history is a factor, not
a rule, in determining the future.

From those of us that have been around since punched cards,
exactly 20 years ago Radio Shack had the greatest number of
computer applications on the planet AND 85% of the UNIX
licenses in the >World<.
Thurman

well, that's the truth....30 or so years ago, it was IBM that was the
dreaded IT monopoly, eh, and AT&T had still not given birth to the baby
bells? 10 years from now, who knows which company will rise as the next
powerhouse of the IT arena? if i knew that, i'd know where to socket
most of my savings....

 

[=?iso-8859-1?Q?=22Dan_Michael_O._Hegg=F8=22?=]

This month two companies in the US announced flexible non color displays
for sale and >delivery<.

A couple of the large retailers have participated in trials of flexible
'banners' that display changing text.

It's not a large stretch to imagine a PPC with a hinged cover that opens
like a clamshell to display a 640x480 display.

I know. Or what about this?

http://www.siemens.com/index.jsp?sd...1s4fp&sdc_sid=6647399584&sdc_bcpath=1031582,&

but there's still some time before it's public and easy to use. For
example, I wouldn't have a screen that I have to turn up four times to use

 

[Thurman]

but there's still some time before it's public and easy to use. For
example, I wouldn't have a screen that I have to turn up four times to
use

That's why in the US there are both Chevys and Fords.

I got my Hitachi G1000 last week. I feel it deserves the
label 'Communicator'. It does reach the limit for size and
weight for me, but the capabilities, for what I need, are
amazing.

The display issue you describe is a problem only on web
pages that cannot be 'zoned'. To read a page by using the
slider bars is difficult for me. If I had pan and zoom via
stylus, most of that problem would disappear.

I disagree with you on waiting for the ultimate solution.
I've gained about a 20% production increase since last
December using an Axim with a Sprint cellular modem.

Postponing a decision freezes you at the old level of
inefficiency and signals a lack of market to manufacturers.

It's only been four years since I told a Japanese
manufacturer that US citizens would not throw their PDA away
at the end of a year to buy a new one. Now I've 'discarded'
mine by passing the Axim to the wife, her Visor to a daughter.

 

[=?iso-8859-1?Q?=22Dan_Michael_O._Hegg=F8=22?=]

That's why in the US there are both Chevys and Fords.

I got my Hitachi G1000 last week. I feel it deserves the label
'Communicator'. It does reach the limit for size and weight for me, but
the capabilities, for what I need, are amazing.

The Hitachi G1000 isn't a phone, it's a PDA with phone capabilities. Of
course that's a nice thing sometimes, but most users would like a phone
smaller than that.

The display issue you describe is a problem only on web pages that cannot
be 'zoned'. To read a page by using the slider bars is difficult for me.
If I had pan and zoom via stylus, most of that problem would disappear.

But you wouldn't like to read web pages on a T68i...

I disagree with you on waiting for the ultimate solution. I've gained
about a 20% production increase since last December using an Axim with a
Sprint cellular modem.

But you wouldn't if you had an Axim and a cellular with Bluetooth
abbilities..?

Postponing a decision freezes you at the old level of inefficiency and
signals a lack of market to manufacturers.

But what is the "new" level? I would say a thin PDA with Bluetooth and WiFi
and a small phone with Bluetooth and some basic PDA functions. I sync both
my Palm and my phone, so if I need to carry very little, I just bring my
phone which carries my calendar and contacts. If I need more, I bring my
Palm and my phone.

Also, we should divide the SmartPhones into two groups: PDA's with phone
capabilities and phones with PDA capabilities. I think both groups will
grow, but I think the first group is the most exciting, and I don't like to
name it SmartPhone, because it's not mainly a phone, but a PDA. You don't
name a PDA SmartNetworkCard because it contains network capabilities?

It's only been four years since I told a Japanese manufacturer that US
citizens would not throw their PDA away at the end of a year to buy a new
one. Now I've 'discarded' mine by passing the Axim to the wife, her Visor
to a daughter.

Ok, you've got a better PDA? But I hope you keep you'r phone too

 

[Mark Thornton]

For me, it's not needed. I turned my ATT cell phone of 3 years off last
Tuesday; don't miss it.

Today I drove from Ft Worth to Dallas for a business lunch. I received
calls and made calls during the trip with no problem.

A client at lunch mentioned that he was about to drive to Lake Texoma,
80 miles away, to check on his boat. I connected via the Internet to a
San Diego webcam. From a restaurant table in North Dallas, we watched
sailors on San Diego Bay; received the local weather reports and
listened to live radio broadcast.

I'm quoting a web cam system for his boat next week to save three hours
of driving.

How about add a remote control system so he can sail the boat using an
applet from his desk? ;-)

The technology is wonderful, but is this really the best way? We have a
flat (apartment in US English) in Italy around 1000 miles from here. No
webcam but we do have the phone numbers of friends and relatives living
near by. So if there are problems (drought this year, floods last year,
.... earthquake in 1976), we can find out what the local situation is.

Mark Thornton

 

[Guest]

People will still want to access their schedule when on the phone ;-)

Don't know about all smart phones, but in the Nokia 9210 or 9290
(for USA), you just put the call on the speaker if you want to
use the keyboard. I tend to imagine the phone makers have
thought a little about usability issues (at least, I hope they
have).

Since the smart phone style devices don't do as much PIM stuff as
my old Psion PDA, I'm not yet tempted to move over. However it
is pretty obvious that it wouldn't take much to include most of
the old Epoc functionality in the Symbian devices. They are
still only first and second generation, and should get better.