OK, as you may have noticed, I'm like a dog with a bone sometimes who can't
let go.
I am *not* a programmer. But, I can conceptualize software so here goes:
(1) MS pushes through Windows Update to current Vista CPP/RC users an "XP
Validation" program (which I am going to nickname "ET"). The program does
the following:
(a) ET Runs under Vista. Explains it's trying what the heck it is
trying to do -- save the customer time and money and instructs user to
insert XP CD/DVD. (PR campaign needed to overcome mistrust here -- we can
all help :-} )
(b) Requires users to enter XP key either from the XP media or the
sticker we all have on our boxes.
c) ET calls home.
In other words, it calls Microsoft over the
Internet and "validates" the XP key. I'm going to be purposely vague about
what validate means. All MS really needs is to record the unique key and
make sure this is the first time ET called home with that key.
(d) Assuming the key is "valid" and unique, ET records a file on the
Vista disk -- using NSA level encryption and hidden god knows where that
says, in essence, yup, we got a good one. We will call that file "ET
Genuine." The file is saved.
(2) When Vista installs, the first thing it *already* does is check with MS
to see if there are any install updates available (hence, the code really
isn't frozen folks). Assuming it's too late to put ET's cousin on the
Vista
upgrade disk (probably is), Vista install does the following:
(a) Checks to see if a legit CPP/RC of Vista is installed.
(b) If yes, downloads ET's cousin which validates "ET Genuine" including
making sure that ET Genuine is still unique.
c) IF ET Genuine is found, validated and is still unique, an upgrade
of Vista RC is permitted. If ET Genuine is invalid, etc., Vista downloads
Darth Vader and re-formats your hard drive. Well, OK, you got my point.
Perfect. Undoubtedly no. Subject to some piracy. Undoubtedly yes. A
major source of revenue loss for MS -- no way! So, the pirate who beats
this scheme pays $259 for Vista Ultimate instead of $399. BFD. It will
encourage CPPs to upgrade to Vista early and probably end up either
revenue-neutral or positive.
If the folks at MS can't write the above in a week, their programmers
are in
deep doo doo. Whether they are capable of deciding to do *SOMETHING*
along
these lines within the next 45 days before the next Vista launch (phase 2)
is a nice test of how nimble the behemoth is these days.