And what precisely is Tom's source for his numbers?
Don't get me wrong, it's a good page, but certainly not a reliable source
for the kinds of numbers (and other information) you need to make the
guesstimates you go on to make below...
And I extrapolated the exponential increase using 50% per year from
the year 2000. So I got:
Hmmmmm -- "exponential" maybe, but 50% per annum is way too high.
2000 50,000
2001 75,000
2002 112,500
2003 168,750
2004 253,125
An exponential increase is not only consistent with past history but
also the number of people (both users and vxers) involved. And who
knows? Maybe the number of vxers is growing at a larger exponential
rate than that of PCs and users.
Wrong.
For one, Tom's numbers leading up to that 2000 number of 50,000 are not
well bounded. Also, you appear to have failed to allow for the "some
schmuck wasted great gobs of his time generating approximately 15,000
trivial DOS viruses with a kit" factor a few years back. Some scanner
developers did not add 15,000 to their detection counts as they already
detected all (or almost all) of these "new" viruses because they had
good generic detection of that kit's output, but eventually all (?)
developers have added that 15,000 to their count to keep it (roughly)
in line with all the other developers. This happened over the course
of two or three calendar years and as Tom's source is unclear, it is
equally unclear whether his 2000 figure is exaggerate by this factor or
not. Of course, extrapolating from data that does or does not contain
such a massively distorting one-off "oddball" event is bound to be
fraught with problems (even if you otherwise get the right curve and
growth factor...).
I'm just talking about the total number of viruses ... and I wouldn't
be surprised at 250,000 this year. But I dunno.
I would be -- that number seems to me, as it clearly does to Kurt too,
to be out by a factor of approximately 2.5 to 3.
It seems that when Andreas says "X viruses" he means "X samples of some
unknown number of viruses". There is a _very_ important distinction
here that the editors of Virus Bulletin previous to me took great pains
to point out and ensure that the VB tests did not fudge...
Of course, properly classifying which proven viral files are samples of
the same, and which samples of different viruses, is a major research
undertaking and for very many viruses it will be a much more time-
consuming effort than actually proving that a sample is viral in some
real-world environment.