On Thu, 12 May 2005 12:46:19 -0400, Robert Myers wrote:
Do you really thing these things exist?
Tech types are packrats. No staff type ever wrote a briefing saying
"This is what we expected, this is what we got, and here's why we
didn't get what we expected?"
Come on, no one allows records to
live past their useful life. Sockholders could find 'em in a discovery
action. I'd like to know what and when HP figured it out. ;-)
Of course it's hard. The folks on CA and AFC were laughing at the
notion that it was even possible, given the state of the art.
These things had been tried before, and many in thouse gorups
were there when it was tried. Evidently Intel bet against the known art,
and lost.
You've never been around when something that "everybody knew" turned
out to be wrong? "Everybody knew" you couldn't make features smaller
than the wavelength, for example.
IBM went through a similar phase: The only reason it hasn't been done
is because nobody else has done it right. We've got the money to do
it right.
The key problem that underlies at least some of Itanium's difficulties
is a core problem for IT and it isn't going to go away: how to
anticipate movement of data to minimize time on the critical path.
The same problem shows up with memory access, with disk access, and
now with serving web pages. The technology continues to move since
Itanium was dreamed up. And who knows if they even understood how
much of a problem getting the data in would be would be--I don't think
they did. I'd be grateful, in fact, for a citation that said that
they did. Itanium was already on the launching pad before people
started saying "Oh, my g*d" about the memory wall. Since Intel
effectively made the same decision *again* with NetBurst, though, one
is inclined to think that Intel continued to think it had a way to
beat the problem. Wonder who was lying to whom?
Gee, I heard that on CA at *least* five years ago. Some things never
change.
It's a moving target.
What is the incentive for anyone to move their application to Itanic?
It's a business issue. What is the payoff?
The only thing Intel *has* is the ISA. Why is that an issue for Intel's
customers? What does that benefit *them*?
The advantage is that it's not x86 and it's not made by IBM. Your bet
is that the industry will converge on x86. It may well, except for a
particularly lucrative part of the market. That's the part that IBM
has and that Intel wants. A different ISA won't help them to get it?
Apparently Intel thinks otherwise.
Why would *customers* care? Because they don't want their enterprise
workhorses running on a legacy PC processor that migrated upward. It
seems increasingly unlikely, but if Itanium ever does make it to the
desktop, it will be clear that it is migrating downward. You can
think that's irrelevant, if you like, but I don't. If you're going to
wheel out IBM big iron, you don't want to be wheeling in a PC to
replace it.
It's true. When I talk to people who _ought_ to be interested,
they're not. They've already tried it, found out that it's hard and
there's no real payoff, and moved on.
RM