You have absolutely no way of knowing if that is true or not yet.
You can never actually test this without waiting, but the shelf life will be
determined by performing Accelerated Life Testing on the media. It's not
going to be very accurate, but should provide a rough minimum on how long
it'll last. However, even then, these values are usually for archival
conditons. You'd need ideally fairly steady temperatures, not too hot/cold,
dark, etc. Fir example, CDs and DVDs will degrade very quickly in sunlight.
Also the cases you put them in often react over time with the material of
the CD/DVD. It'd need to be placed carefully in an acid free mount for
better results. Also with CDs, certain ones are better than others - for
example, Kodak released Kodak Gold CDs, and they were archival rated at a
long time more than the competitors - Gold is unreactive, and they worked on
making the plastic as long lasting as possible. A bad scratch, however, can
be fatal to it. Similarly, dropping a HDD will no doubt kill it, and
leaving it for a long time (as mentioned on a previous post) can cause the
motor or bearings to cease. Anything with moving parts is likely to be a
poor choice for long term storage.
Best bed, I'd say, is to find a couple of DIFFERENT types of archival media
and use BOTH. Make sure all data is duplicated on both. Maybe every 5
years, make sure all the data is transferred to another two types of media -
this should be enough to make sure you don't have compatibility problems.
In the UK there was a huge national project called the Domesday Project -
all the data was recorded on two virtually indestructable Videodiscs. The
problem was that the machines all died before they used the data, and they
had big problems recovering the data.
http://www.ananova.com/news/story/sm_719356.html
So in short, i'd stick with more than one set of media, and transfer them to
new media every few years - thus not giving the media time to degrade to the
point where data is lost. (note: Also store the two sets of data in
different locations - fire will destroy pretty much anything).
Mark