TJ said:
DVD is going to be around for a while? Don't bet on it. That's what we
all thought about CDs just a few years ago. While they're still around
and they can still be used by most computers, DVDs are rapidly taking
over the market. The reign of the CD didn't last nearly as long as that
of the floppy. What makes you think the DVD will be any different?
Well... We already had CDs. Music on DVD is none too popular even for
those who own combo DVD-video and DVD-a/SACD players. But you can play
CDs on DVD players just fine, in fact they do it very well, so well
that one would be foolish to buy a dedicated CD player when DVD players
cost the same or less, unless they absolutly needed a boom box or a car
stereo. For those, it's not an issue as most music is released on CD.
But why do I think DVD is any different? Downward compatability.
Unlike VHS and Beta, Cassette and 8-track, unlike these guys, downward
compatibility is the bit key in digital media. CD will work on a DVD
player, and currently DVD and CD will work on Bluray/HDDVD players.
Rom drives, currently it's the same deal, you shell out $800 for the
next generation drive and it will read your current DVD+/-R or your old
CD-R.
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But some historical perspective. The 5.25 inch floppy was released I
believe in 1975... and while the 3.5 inch floppy was released somewhat
early, as in I forst noticed single sided editions on the Tandy model
100 portable computer, I didn't really see them on desktops until the
late 80s being stock on the consumer Amiga, Atari-ST, and Macintosh.
But it wasn't until there and abouts of 1990 when I could say in all
honesty that I made the switch. So you "could" say the 5.25 was hot
between 1975-1984, 9 years. Popular use was more like 12 to 15 years.
There wer eealier editions of the 3.5 inch floppy, but somewhere
between tandy and the macintosh is the first consumer use of this
product, so about 1984.
DVD, as a consumer standard, is circa 1996/1997 depending on where you
lived. It's currently 2006 and we are just NOW starting to get
something better, and that's "9 years". I'd wager it'll take another 4
years before we get something better available on the consumer level
for a reasonable price.
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I said 5 to 10 years before swaping medium. How is DVD different than
floppy disc? I don't see it as being much different other than the
fact that unlike the 20th century, downward compatability is something
that is the norm, not the exception.