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David Schwartz,
Can you answer a few questions please?
Sure.
1. Just so I know, what exactly is PAE? (yes, I know what it stands for)
2. What does it do?
3. Why is it a bad workaround?
4. How much RAM can Win 9x, Win NT, 2K and XP, Mac OS 8, 9 and X, and
other *nix (assuming most popular distros) handle without using this "PAE
workaround"?
I'm asking these because there are quite a few things I'd never heard of
in Brendan's post.
David Schwartz said:PAE is an ugly workaround. A lot of people specifically purchase the
maximum amount of memory their OS can handle without PAE because they want
to avoid it.
Oh there were, but they were painful to use in most cases. To address your
main point, it depends on your definition of commodity software, but by
any definition I don't see that as a "killer app" justifying moving from
32 to 64 bit hardware before the old system is due for replacement.
Actually I would consider that over half of the computers in desktop use
are going to be replaced in 6-7 years, with nothing more than attrition
driving it.
I am. Based on two different justifications. The best is that there hasn't
been a 64 bit killer app for the Mac, and that's been 64 bit for a decade.
The other is that there *is* a point when people have enough and are not
willing to make an upgrade because they don't see the need.
If you can get access to sales info, most 32 bit systems aren't ordered
with max memory, largest disk, or fastest CPU. That certainly suggests
that people don't feel the need.
I'm still confident that 64 bit hardware will come driven by replacement
rather than upgrade.
I agree that most computers will include 64 bit capability, but only
because it will be standard. Intel and AMD are unlikely to spend any money
in 32 bit only products, when they need more performance and lower power
foar more.
I predict the big 64 bit software push will be driven by greed, I mean
marketing. When enough people have gotten 64 bit hardware, Microsoft will
suddenly release new versions of all apps, with new features, and in 64
bit only. I predict they will offer *very* cheap upgrade from 32 bit
versions, because they know they will make the money on Windows-64 o/s
upgrades. But until most people have the hardware they won't push 64 bit
only, because it locks them out of a majority of the market.
Whatever.
As for gamers? I define a gamer as someone who spends at least $100 extra
on a computer for memory, faster CPU, or detter display. Oddly, that lets
out a fair percentage of people who do little else with their computer. If
they didn't spend money on hardware at 32 bits, will they jump to 64
intesad of spending the money on more games? For that matter, are the
games on the 64 bit Mac better? (real question, I have no idea)
In comp.sys.intel No One said:I remember the shift from the 8088 to the 8086..who needs 16 "real"
bits???
8086 to 80286....20 bit memory access?? what do I need with 16 MB of
RAM??? then the 80386...who needs 32 bit registers, we still run
DOS....and so on....
David said:Exactly. People will wind up with 64-bit capable hardware without
specifically intending to have it just through attritition. Once that
happens, software will start to be released either as 64-bit only or with
significant benefits on 64-bit platforms.
I disagree with both points. On the first point, the 64-bitness of Macs
is not comparable to the 64-bitness of PCs for two reasons. One is that
64-bits on PCs is accompanied by other changes such as register size. The
other is that memory has now reached the point where a 32-bit limitation of
virtual memory size is significant.
As for your second point, people have been arguing that for decades and
it has never been proven right. I personally don't believe it -- people will
always want to do more and will always push their tools to the limit to
increase what they themselves can do.
No, that's not the reason. It's because people buy for the sweet spot.
That is, the buy equipment that gives them the most bang for their buck. The
same goes for software requirements -- you can make better software if you
make the requirements greater, but you can't aim so high that no market is
left. The combination of these two forces makes 64-bit only software in six
years almost inevitable.
I don't understand the difference between replacement and upgrade.
Perhaps you could explain. Aren't these the same things?
Well that's the point. As soon as the vast majority of power users are
64-bit capable, power user software will start to be released as 64-bit
only.
This brings up the other flaw in your Mac example. Until a large
percentage of systems are 64-bit, there's no reason to develop software that
benefits from 64-bits.
*neater* than what I have, then I get a new one before the old one has
been fully utilized. Or depreciated. That's upgrade."
David Schwartz wrote:
Let's see, in the 60's car manufacturers built larger and larger engines,
until around 427-450 cubic inches very few people were interested. Looks
like people didn't buy more than they needed.
And Ford decided that there was a market for an SUV sized between an
Expedition and a school bus. They stopped making it for the model year
after three months or so.
Exactly! They buy what they need and a little more.
Vendors aim for the sweet spot too, features cost to develop and maintain,
so you don't see an unlimited number of features.
If my computer (car, lawn mower, stove, tires, whatever) is near the MTBF,
is getting unreliable, making funny noices, then I get a new one. That's
replacement. And in business that means the cost is depreciated.
If I see a new computer (car, spouse, camera) which is just so much
*neater* than what I have, then I get a new one before the old one has
been fully utilized. Or depreciated. That's upgrade.
If there's a feature I actually need, it's still upgrade, but has a much
different rationale.
My bet is that most personal computers will be replaced as they get older.
I find it really unlikely that any company which provides less than the
fastest CPU and largest memory will be doing an upgrade, sexy isn't
deductable, and few applications go from small to huge in the lifetime of
a computer.
That's what I said, eventually. As soon as the market for software running
on Win98 dries up no one will make it... but they do today, so what does
that tell you about residual market. Mass market applications are going to
be out in 32 bits for years to come.
All the big game systems have been 64 bit for a while, seems to me I've
seen just one or two (hundred) new title for the older 32 bit versions.