Prescotts are running close to the boiling point of water, when desktops hit
10Ghz (150-200C) will watercooling be a must? what about laptops? will we
need to wear on our backs a cooling coil with hoses going into the laptop.
I wonder if maybe intel needs to go back to the drawingboard and figure out
how to get more work per clock.
Well... ...- actually, Intel have changed course. You're not likely
to see the results for a couple of years, but from now on emphasis is
going to be on optimizing performance rather than clockspeed. I
suppose reasons are both reduced competitiveness and the problems and
delays with Prescott. But marketing department have suffered another
defeat as well. No more protecting EPIC aka IA64, and no more billions
put into the Itanium pit. Which I reckon means Itanium is effectively,
though unofficially as of yet, dead. Long live IA32e aka iAMD'86-64.
What about these videocards, look at the 5900 or 9800, they generate lots of
heat and even require a powersupply connector. I wonder if PCs will consume
1500 Watts of power when you use them 10 years from now. Thats a lot of
electricity.
Technology is going to go the way of least resistance. The day
increased Watts and more sophisticated cooling is a more convenient
way to increase performance than miniaturization, then we'll see that.
Maybe BTX is going to move the borders on cooling capacity a bit.
Maybe CPU design will follow and make use of it.
But things actually haven't changed for a long time, in this respect.
I can remember 68030s running at 80C. And early PIIIs were hot, so
were early Athlons, and early P4s, and now early Prescotts.
Today, mighty K8-Athlon64s are like only 60-70W, and according to AMD,
they're going to get even cooler. You might also want to consider the
Crusou and Centrino, and mobile Athlon64. I don't think you can say
we're really getting any hotter, as of yet. Same with graphics. Do you
remember Voodoo5, aka 'Napalm'?
Another thing that might give some kind of perspective on this: An
international team of scientists, in Denmark, have succeeded in
creating a chemical process that produces molecular transistors. Each
molecule is a transistor. A tiny, tiny stick, I think it is 3nm long.
And lots of them. - And they work perfectly! How does one know that? -
Because some technicians in Sweden have succeeded in wiring them
together and connect them! They cut a ridiculously small stencil of
the conductive pattern in a thin foil, with an electron beam. Then
they beam gold atoms through it, focusing on the target 'chip' which
is cooled down to almost absolute zero. This way they get conductive
leads only 2-3 atoms thick and width still in the same magnitude. Now
there are gaps where the transistors should be, just as wide as the
transistors are long. A tiny, tiny whiff of electric potential
applied, then sucks down a transistor molecule that settles on the
surface, bridging the connectors. Some more electricity and a bit of
heat, welds it all together.
It's all much more difficult than it sounds, and there's a long, long
way left to go to a, whathaveyou, 250 million transistor CPU. - But
hey, it's not science fiction or speculations, it's real! - Totally
far out, like!
ancra