This is an interesting piece of science-fiction about an alternative
reality Earth where Microsoft never existed.
If Microsoft Never Existed...
http://www.extremetech.com/article2/0,1558,1869090,00.asp?kc=ETRSS02129TX1K0000532
A slightly amusing but absurd article that shows a total misconception
of how the history of technology (and history in general) actually
works.
On the surface, as others have pointed out, it is likely that the
history of personal computers would have been substantially the same
without Microsoft. Other companies made the same type of products that
are made by Microsoft, including operating systems (with both text and
graphical interfaces), programming tools, office applications, etc.
Certainly Microsoft was a central player in the rise of IBM-compatible
MS-DOS systems and later dominance of Windows and MS Office. But
Digital Research, Apple, IBM, Lotus, Novell, WordPerfect or dozens of
other companies with competing products could have easily filled the
void if Microsoft never existed.
More interesting is the fundamental assumption that history is the
consequence of certain individuals engaging in specific behavior at
certain points in time. Call this the "Hero Theory of History." We all
learn this in elementary school (in the U.S.): history is the march of
events caused by the Big Heros. George Washington did this. Abraham
Lincoln did that. FDR, Stalin and Churchill defeated Hitler and saved
the world. Bell created the telephone. Edison invented the light bulb.
And on and on.
But if you dig beneath the surface, you find that there are processes
that drive these events and actions, and the individuals just happened
to be in the right place and the right time to become famous. Edison
was in a race to develop the first practical electric light. If he and
his staff hadn't stumbled on a workable material for the filament for
the light bulb, then someone else would have found it first and become
the "inventor" of the electric light. The time was ripe for the
invention, and Edison was lucky enough to win the race and cash in on
it first.
What drives historical events is the underlying process of humans
building upon the existing store house of knowledge, and adapting old
ideas for new applications and problems. The individual makes a small
contribution, but it is the process that drives events. Call this the
"Process Theory of History." It governs the evolution of most ideas:
science, technology, politics, economics, etc.
The history of technology is best understood by the Process Theory.
"Inventions" are almost always a small, incremental idea added to the
existing body of human knowledge. This can be seen with all major
inventions, such as the steam engine, automobile, airplane, telephone,
electric light, computer, etc. If you will recall a public television
series and book by James Burke a couple of decades ago called
"Connections," you will remember a very clear and convincing proof of
the application of this theory to all of today's modern technology.
So the point is that personal computers would be substantially the
same as they are today if Microsoft never existed. There would be some
comparatively minor differences in the details: maybe it would be an
Apple OS on the Motorola 68000 CPU, or IBM OS/3 on the PowerPC
platform, or DR CP/M on the MIPS CPU that because the dominant
platform in 2005. But the same forces that created the current
hardware and software products would still exist regardless of the
identity of the person of company that happened to ride the wave of
progress in the actual world. The power and usefulness of personal
computers using microprocessors are such that it is inevitable that
they would become ubiquitous, with or without Microsoft. The process
driving the evolution of this technology would be substantially the
same even if Microsoft never existed.
Thus, the article portraying an alternative non-Microsoft universe
with expensive and slow computers and no single dominant platform is
nonsense. Moore's law was not invented at Microsoft. And, in fact, it
was not invented by Mr. Moore or Intel. It was simply observed by Mr.
Moore and he was the first person to state the rule. Similarly, the
emergence of a single dominant platform in the realm of personal
computers seems likely, given similar trends in mainframe computers
dominated by IBM, the emergence of dominant formats for LPs, VHS video
tapes, audio Compact Discs, etc. It is simply a fact about our world
and the technological society that we live in.
- -
Gary L.
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