Cor Ligthert said:
I agree with you, as I understood it well from you do you see this the same
as that the car industry have made the decission to stop making cars who use
petrol in future. However that is not my proffesion.
I think it more likely that cars will switch to an alternative energy source
than VB turning into C or any other language. That's like proper 4x4's being
phased out by SUV's (most of which don't even have a diesel engine much less
manual transmission). These languages may well converge but there will
remain key differences based on the kind of programming being done - hence
the total approach of Visual Studio where the full version provides you with
all of the languages at your convenience. Likewise SUVs are very comfortable
touring on unsealed roads, but it is begging for trouble to go off road
without manual transmission and a high-torque/low-acceleration engine such
as a low rev diesel engine. So even within VB there is divergence of
database, API, and communications programming that almost defines separate
programming languages within VB. Some of the programming dialects within VB
may closely resemble programming dialects within C#. While such conincidence
may not necessarily indicate a future technological merger, the implications
are food for thought nonetheless. However, this is only my opinion.
By the way, I think it doesn't have to be your profession for you to have
and express your perspective about it. I happen to appreciate your opinion
as well. Only I don't think the car industry really has a choice. If car
manufacturers want to stay in business, they must provide the market what it
demands. If that is solar powered vehicles, then I suspect they will
experience something similar to growing pains some of us experienced moving
across to VB.NET. A few decades ago, we wanted PCs but Honeywell decided not
to roll them out because PCs would cannibalise the more lucrative
minicomputer market. Although honeywell's decision makes good business
sense, IBM rolled them out instead. Ironically, Honeywell though right in
their assessment of the new technology, utterly failed to benefit from this
asessment when the lucrative minicomputer market was canniblised out of
existence by IBM's supply of PCs. The lesson history bequeaths us is that
when the market swings, there is no viable economic choice but to comply.
Presently, the most viable development path to the latest market demands
appears to be .NET. We don't have to like all the changes, but that's where
the money is...
There is an electrician living in Adelaide who has removed the petrol engine
from his car and replaced it with batteries and an electric motor. His
battery-electric car is registered, roadworthy, can hold it's own in freeway
traffic, and costs a lot less to run because electric grid energy (not being
so highly taxed) is a lot cheaper than petrol energy. If he can do it, it
won't be long before other people join him. Whether they get help from the
car companies or from their friendly local electrician, there is a huge
demand for anything that helps people reduce the amount of tax they have to
pay. This is what made diesel and then gas conversions so popular in
Australia. Converting your car so that you plug it into the wall at night to
charge, and it runs all the next day is one way to dodge fuel taxes.
I'd like to think that the petroleum boom will go on forever, and that I can
get filthy rich talking about rocks instead of "breaking my head" writing
software! :^) However, I think I'd be unrealistic to expect no major and
economically catastrophic changes in my industry, so I look at history and
may well gripe about petroleum executives not being able to provide a more
stable industry, but I assume they are doing the best they can with this
because at the end of the day, they too are in it for the money. After all,
petroleum companies are known for their uncanny ability to deliver a huge
project 40 years in development on time and on budget. Can you imagine the
implications? It's just mind-blowing from a software perspective, but then
looking at a larger picture: where will VB be 40 years from now? I can
imagine a slogan,
"NB: Neural Basic, I think therefore I progr-am." :^)
There would be many changes along the way; big changes that both delight and
infuriate people using the new bleeding edge technology. Such changes would
have the potential to alienate entire industry sectors if not implemented
considerately. That's how it goes. I ask this group how to secure VB2005
object code and I don't like the answer, but it's the truth and what can any
of us do about it? The fact remains that VB2005 object code can be just as
secure as VB6 object code. It's just that the sudden change, requiring
sudden infrastructure development that is unpalatable to ISVs - ISVing being
something I do in addition to taking contracts as a well site geologist.
And yes, whether I like it or not, fossil fuel technology is getting a
little stale too. Whether people make up an excuse to find another way to
get to work or just admit that variety is the spice of life that makes new
technology so much more attractive; these kind of changes are coming. In
Australia, you can already drop off the power grid for less than five
percent of the value of your home (and that's without the generous
government subsidy). Of course this is bad for the coal and gas business
because it means one more punter is switching to battery/solar powered
electricity, but who wants grid power if it's going to be so unreliable? As
a well site geologist, I can't do anything about the outfits that are
poisoning the coal and gas market with negligent maintenance policies, and
neither can my petroleum clients. What we can do is participate in making
the most of the opportunities presented by the market demand for something
new (and hopefully more economical :^)
I guess a similar idea could be to use the current to help you go where you
want to go, instead of fighting the current for a specific route.
While I'm at it, if people can be sold on the idea of fitting electric cars
with x86/x64 RISC systems (like the PC), this could make for some
interesting software development opportunities for those here with
electrical and/or electronic engineering backgrounds...
All the best to you...