R
Remo-Shiva
Any Educated Guesses Ablang?
R
Roy Coorne
Remo-Shiva said:
Well, it will most probably be a MS4M - Microsoft For Media - machine
called Gamer's Dream: Fully & automatically connected/integrated into
MSN for downloading, streaming and updating - at 1 $ for the hardware
plus a flat MSN subscription rate of XXX $ per month/year...
rc
A
Anon
Roy Coorne said:
Oh, and it won't even boot the OS unless it can log into MSN first. -Dave
A
Alan Walker
Anon said:
Only for the corporate suits, the rest of us will be running Linux on
multi-processor 64/128 bit boxes with solid state storage for fast access
for booting and program storage with massive fast disks for data. PCs will
be tiny but they'll need coolers the size of air conditioners.
Alan
A
Anon
Only for the corporate suits, the rest of us will be running Linux on
Except that by 2010, Mickeysoft will have purchased all the major linux
distro companies. So while you might choose to run linux, you won't be
running anything decent like redhat or suse, for example. Also by 2010, I
imagine Mickeysoft will have convinced congress to pass a law making it
ILLEGAL to purchase any computer or computer component (even minor ones like
video cards) without a Mickeysoft operating system. Mickeysoft will push it
through congress by arguing that it's to eliminate piracy and FIGHT
TERRORISM. They will back up this argument with trillions of soft money.
Welcome to the future. -Dave
Except that by 2010, Mickeysoft will have purchased all the major linux
distro companies. So while you might choose to run linux, you won't be
running anything decent like redhat or suse, for example. Also by 2010, I
imagine Mickeysoft will have convinced congress to pass a law making it
ILLEGAL to purchase any computer or computer component (even minor ones like
video cards) without a Mickeysoft operating system. Mickeysoft will push it
through congress by arguing that it's to eliminate piracy and FIGHT
TERRORISM. They will back up this argument with trillions of soft money.
Welcome to the future. -Dave
S
somebody
Well, that's a couple of years too far, to be easy.
But lets talk about it for a while.
Intel is currently scrapping their planned future processors. The P4
line, and all optimization for high clockrates, will be killed off as
fast as possible, to be replaced by cpus borrowing tech from Centrino
and AMD's K8.
The reason is, of course, the exponentially escalating problems of
heat, high costs and poor performance.
Even today, Intel is primarily only "competitive" in the
just-below-highend media desktop cpu segment. And that is also largely
thanks to the extreme lengths, benchmarkers like PC-Mark, SYS-Mark,
Sisoft, are prepared to go, exploiting architectural differences to
make the P4 appear better. And of course the willingness to emphasize
media encoding for other benchmarks. Usually also pulling all stops,
choosing HT and SSE2, but not 3DNow!+ -optimized code, and options
like lowest quality and no sound on video, all to maximize the
appearance of the P4.
( Excellent example of this kind of bias, is tomshardware. And if you
want to know more about tomshardware, just read this piece of glee by
their general manager:
http://www20.tomshardware.com/column/20040218/index.html
- And my agenda? Well I'm cheering for AMD, because they make damn
good cpus, but are still struggling. And I'm pissed off on
tomshardware, and so will you be, when you've read that column.)
Today, Intel is living on it's manufacturing excellence and brand name
recognition, in the wide market of customers that don't really know
exactly what they're buying. This cannot continue. The value of that
brand name is already diminishing, and Intel have understood they have
to get on the right track again. Current emergency plans, calls for
new CPU-core technologies to be fully phased in , in all market
segments, by 2007.
It is tempting to think this will be called Pentium5 or 6. And, of
course, it will be iAMD'86-64, - that is 64-bit.
The transition phase, between older higher clocked and newer, more
powerful, slower clocked cores, is going to be 'covered' by Intel's
new numbered naming scheme.
By 2010, I think we'll basically have improved versions of that P5/6.
It's also tempting to think that this core, will be highly scalable
superscalar in some way. Thus, it's not a foregone conclusion that it
will be dual/multi core. It could be something more sophisticated,
utilizing improved hyperthreading to feed many parallel execution
pipes. So clockspeed is not going to improve at the same rate. It'd
damn hard to guess, but ok, between 10 and 15 GHz? While that don't
seem much, the actual processing power of that cpu could be 10-15
times todays 3GHz cpus. Heck, maybe even more, in some areas.
Extensions added to the iAMD'86-64 ISA would primarily be increased
width of vector processing. Maybe we're at 1024-bit width by 2010? But
I suppose 512-bit will be more credible. It kinda depends on where the
memory system is.
AMD: Well, the scenario for Intel depends on AMD continuing to provide
some competition. But, frankly, if Intel gets their act together, AMD
will be hard pressed to survive. Their CPU business is doing great
right now, but their future was eroded already a year ago, when they
had to cut staff. Neither the K9, nor their production facilities are
where they need to be. And the company as whole, is probably still
losing money, even today. So where does this put AMD by 2010?
My guess is that IBM have purchased them. Will IBM then be interested
in continuing competing with Intel? Given their Cell-processor and
Power architectures. Well, they bought Cyrix previously, and basically
just killed them off. And IBM is not much for big head to head
competition adventures these days. So it looks bleak. My guess is that
they will briefly hang on to the Opteron server business for a while,
wringing out the last money, and then that's it. Then we're going to
see a lot of slow and expensive cpus from Intel, for ages, until
something new comes along and kills off both '86 and Intel. Probably
like Sony/Toshiba PS6.
- But, let's hope 64-bit does great things for AMD in the years now,
and that they will still be alive and kicking ass. Their product by
2010 is then going to still be the K9, and it's going to be a scalable
multicore CPU. For once, probably less advanced than Intels offering.
But cheaper, as usual. And a K10 on the horizon.
Memory system will be at least 128 bits wide, but I think 256 bits is
more likely. DDR1200? And like 8 - 16GB of it.
Storage: I'm sure the old HD is still alive and kicking by 2010, even
if there might be some new holograph storage technologies emerging by
then. And the hd is going to be something like 1.5 - 3 TeraBytes
capacity. Some SATA derivative interface.
I'm sure DVD is still going to be the major disc distribution/storage
system by 2010. But something new, FDD, fluoroscent digital disc, may
have popped up on the horizon.
Video: Here the APIs have to evolve. There's a lot of ground work
needed to push graphics forward in a way that makes it possible to
take advantage of, for reasonable game development efforts. But it's
going to happen, I suppose. nVidia have already taken an initiative
with their CineFX, but it clearly has to be MS's DX that has to do
this, or nothing happens. They'd better be damn interested in doing it
too. The consumer desktop, and DX, is their strongest bastion against
the Linux assault. If they fail to defend that... History teaches us
that computer standards are conquered from below. I have no
difficulties in seeing a sprightly Linux/Sony PS6 conquering
mainstream home computing. And while I'm sure Linux fans are jumping
up and down at such a prospect, just because of very shortsighted
MS-animosity, I actually think computer enthusiasts have good reasons
to be concerned about such developments. It's not like either the
console business or proprietary technologies have been good to us
sofar.
Also lets hope ATI is still alive and kicking ass by 2010. They too
are doing great just now. But again, I have this painful lump of worry
in my stomach, about the future. Doom3 may shift peoples attention to
GeForce and nVidia might hit them like a ton of bricks with their
NV40, soon to be released. Then there's the new nForce3-250 chipset,
that's closely coupled to FX5950 and achieves dramatic performance
boosts in combination. Let's all hope ATI have something extra up
their sleave...
Because again, things will be much better with two players on the
market. Maybe ATI and VIA needs to cooperate a bit, or nVidia will be
steamrolling all over everything except Intel.
I think the PCIX interface will be with us still in 2010. GPUs will be
massively parallel and run on 4-8GHz. LCD monitors will rule, I don't
think LEP will have made enough progress, and resolutions will be
around 1600x1200, to 2560x1920.
Then there's the OS question. The subject of this thread says it all.
Linux really have to come up with some really neat and fancy game API.
An answer to DX. If they can't come up with something really special
in that way, they're not going to be a player. I don't think some
WineX is the answer.
Finally a question: Are we still building computers by 2010? Or is
there legislation in place, demanding licensed and registered
manufacturers only? For making sure any computer will only be able to
execute/play copyrighted, licensed, registered content?
I have no beef with copyrights and licenses. That's perfectly alright.
MS's XP activation is a nice enough compromise. That kind I'm prepared
to accept.
The problem is the music industry have set a precedent of cartels, non
competition and artificially high prices and earnings. We could see
that happen on everything. Just look at console games prices!
I also do have a beef with not being able to build and install my own
computer. And not being able to choose my platform. Again, the media
industry is primarily interested in various proprietary schemes, like
the console business again.
The disappearance of the whitebox PC, will certainly see more of that
kind of deals. - "Now exclusively, ONLY on the new Dell gotUsucka'
DUMension 6000..."
I think we're still building PCs by 2010, but for how long after that?
(yeech, too much stuff in one post, but having written all that, here
goes...>hitting send<
ancra
A
Anon
I thought this much of your post deserved to be repeated. And you're right,
I'm really pissed off at tomshardware. I never believed they could be so
biased against AMD. It's like tomshardware bashing ford and claiming that
chevy is better, and managing to insult all ford owners at the same time. I
wonder if Intel paid them off or something? -Dave
A
Alan Walker
Anon said:
Ah, you live in the good old USA under the Digital Millenium Corporaterule
Act, out here we'll be doing our own thing. Digital Rights Management etc
seems to be a wonderful way of guaranteeing locked-down US computers will
stop selling to the rest of the world. The far east and our own industries
can then make all the control free machines we want to run our own choice of
independant open source operating systems. The thriving hacking industry
will ensure we have readily available free copies of any applications and
games we want to run on them paid for by all you poor locked-down yanks.
Two hundred and thirty years later than you we finally have our own online
war of independance.
Alan
W
waZZZy
MicroNux. I mean MicroNuts.
Anon said:
R
Roy Coorne
You are absolutely right, Alan. We should, in particular, not forgetAlan said:Ah, you live in the good old USA under the Digital Millenium Corporaterule
Act, out here we'll be doing our own thing. Digital Rights Management etc
seems to be a wonderful way of guaranteeing locked-down US computers will
stop selling to the rest of the world. The far east and our own industries
can then make all the control free machines we want to run our own choice of
independant open source operating systems. The thriving hacking industry
will ensure we have readily available free copies of any applications and
games we want to run on them paid for by all you poor locked-down yanks.
Two hundred and thirty years later than you we finally have our own online
war of independance.
Alan
the strive for freedom from the U.S. computer market predominance in
the People's Republic of China (which is regularly reported on in
http://english.people.com.cn/).
Maybe the free GNU Linux will survive there (as Red Linux or Great
Wall Linux)...
Roy
A
Alan Walker
waZZZy said:
Welcome to YOUR future, although our parliament is probably no harder to buy
than your congress they've yet to start the process of handing over control
of the home desktop to the corporations.
Alan
T
Tweetie Pooh
"Anon" <[email protected]> honoured alt.comp.hardware.pc-homebuilt on Sun 04
Apr 2004 05:26:42p with
Didn't something like this already happen when every Intel PC had to have a
MSDOS license whether installed or not?
Apr 2004 05:26:42p with
Didn't something like this already happen when every Intel PC had to have a
MSDOS license whether installed or not?
J
JAD
One that doesn't have TCPA and actually works without turning the
insides of the box into a furnace.
http://www.againsttcpa.com/what-is-tcpa.html
insides of the box into a furnace.
http://www.againsttcpa.com/what-is-tcpa.html