Sorry, but this is just not correct, or more accurately is too broad.
The market for > 4P systems in the x86 market may well be shrinking.
However, it is not shrinking in the overall market when you include
unix servers and mainframes.
Yes it is, at least relative to the total size of the market. The big
Unix servers have seen a continuously shrinking portion of the total
server market, both in terms of units and dollars, for some time now.
There are still a plethora of
applications, mostly production based with hundreds or even thousands
of users, that are not appropriate (read : are too big and resource
hungry) for any of the current x86 systems. I am not talking file
servers, mail servers, or SQL backends here, which is what most of the
windows world thinks when someone says 'server'. I'm talking about
centralized mission critical applications where the application and
the database all run on one server - the bread and butter of virtually
every major corporation in the world.
I'm talking about systems like these :
http://www.hp.com/products1/servers/scalableservers/superdome/specifications.html
http://www-132.ibm.com/content/home...eServer/pSeries/high_end/pSeries_highend.html
I'm well aware of those high-end systems that IBM, HP, Sun, Fujitsu
et. al make. However I'm also aware that they are seeing a shrinking
portion of the worlds server purchases.
The simple fact of the matter is that, for a lot of major
corporations, x86 is able to run the VAST majority of their
applications. Sure, they may still have the odd IBM Regatta server or
Sun Starfire for one particular super-high-end, mission critical
application, but they've only probably only got one. Previously
companies had lots of these things for all kinds of uses, now it's
only the very top-end of the market that needs servers like that.
Everything else runs on x86 for a small fraction of the price.
I really feel the x86 market has been semi-static for the last few
years. More power, but nothing to do with it of real benefit. Big
action has been happening in the high-end market though, and im
fortunate enough to be able to see some of it =)
I think you're just totally missing all the stuff that actually is
happening with x86 servers. They are now getting MUCH better
operating system support, first and foremost. Even Windows has
improved dramatically from where it was in the WinNT days, not to
mention all the work that's gone on in the Linux world. There's also
much better I/O on high-end x86 systems now than there used to be.
Combine that with a lot of improved hardware reliability features,
like hotswappable parts, hardware diagnostics and lots of error
detection and correction stuff. Sure, the high-end IBM, HP and Sun
systems still lead the way here, but x86 is now "good enough" for a
LOT of tasks that it just couldn't handle even just 5 years ago.
There's also a lot of work being done on various types of clustering
that has really helped x86. A lot of pretty high-end systems can now
run rather effectively on a cluster of x86 systems where previously
they needed one single system. Clustering for redundancy has also
helped improve reliability of some of these setups.
Like it or not, small 1-4 processor x86 servers are rapidly
encroaching in on a lot of applications that used to be the exclusive
realm of the high-end Unix systems.