Need Help w/ a Formula

  • Thread starter Thread starter Timothy Consolo
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Timothy Consolo

I am taking a stat class. The professor gave a challenge to any one who
can come up with a furmula for the lottery. Is this possible to in xl?
I am pretty proficent in it, and I am fairy certain it can be done, but
the peramters by which to conceive such a formula are beyond my reach.
This formula needs to work using the mega ball format. It also needs
to take into account past numbers drawn w/ their statistical frequency
of appearance. Any help is welcome. Thank you. :confused:
 
She wants you to tkae in acount, at least 50 past drawings and each
numbers draw percentage based on the total draws ( in this case 50). ie
1=0.1%, 2=1%, 3=0.4%, etc.:confused:
 
here is what i have so far. What I need to do is come up with a number
gererator based on this information

Total Number of Drawings: 104
Upper Section Mega Ball
(Lower Section)
Number Quantity Drawn % of Draws Number Quantity Drawn % of Draws
35 2 1.90% 2 0 0.00%
13 5 4.80% 9 0 0.00%
25 5 4.80% 16 0 0.00%
30 6 5.80% 19 0 0.00%
38 6 5.80% 30 0 0.00%
4 7 6.70% 41 0 0.00%
11 7 6.70% 45 0 0.00%
18 7 6.70% 49 0 0.00%
24 7 6.70% 51 0 0.00%
45 7 6.70% 4 1 1.00%
46 7 6.70% 11 1 1.00%
9 8 7.70% 12 1 1.00%
12 8 7.70% 13 1 1.00%
17 8 7.70% 17 1 1.00%
19 8 7.70% 23 1 1.00%
23 8 7.70% 25 1 1.00%
33 8 7.70% 28 1 1.00%
36 8 7.70% 36 1 1.00%
41 8 7.70% 40 1 1.00%
3 9 8.70% 42 1 1.00%
21 9 8.70% 44 1 1.00%
34 9 8.70% 47 1 1.00%
42 9 8.70% 50 1 1.00%
43 9 8.70% 6 2 1.90%
44 9 8.70% 14 2 1.90%
7 10 9.60% 15 2 1.90%
22 10 9.60% 20 2 1.90%
27 10 9.60% 24 2 1.90%
29 10 9.60% 26 2 1.90%
1 11 10.60% 27 2 1.90%
5 11 10.60% 31 2 1.90%
8 11 10.60% 37 2 1.90%
14 11 10.60% 38 2 1.90%
15 11 10.60% 46 2 1.90%
37 11 10.60% 48 2 1.90%
39 11 10.60% 1 3 2.90%
47 11 10.60% 7 3 2.90%
48 11 10.60% 18 3 2.90%
50 11 10.60% 29 3 2.90%
52 11 10.60% 32 3 2.90%
6 13 12.50% 33 3 2.90%
32 13 12.50% 39 3 2.90%
40 13 12.50% 43 3 2.90%
49 13 12.50% 5 4 3.80%
2 14 13.50% 10 4 3.80%
28 14 13.50% 22 4 3.80%
20 15 14.40% 35 4 3.80%
31 15 14.40% 52 4 3.80%
16 16 15.40% 8 5 4.80%
26 16 15.40% 21 5 4.80%
51 16 15.40% 34 5 4.80%
10 17 16.30% 3 7 6.70%
:confused: :confused: :confused: :confused: :confused:
 
Hi Tim,

If you are searching for a formula that will pick winning
lottery numbers, it can't be done in XL or with any
software for that matter. Lottery numbers drawn are
totally and completely random occurances.

There are UseNet groups dedicated to this subject. Check
Alt.Gambling.Lottery.

The best that can be done is to analyze the data set
(numbers drawn) to come up with a best educated guess. And
the best educated guess fails 99.999999~% of the time.

You can come up with stats out the ying yang but they
really don't tell you anything usefull due to the random
nature of lotteries. They're just stats.

But if you're just looking for an exercise to improve your
analytical and XL skills, you've chosen a good project!

Biff
 
Timothy,

My question to you is this, what is it that you want your formula to
produce?

1. The probability of a given set of numbers being drawn (where the
probability is based on a sample population)

OR

2. The most probable set of numbers (again where the probability is
based on a sample population)

If 1...

P(W) = P(a) * P(b) * P(c) * P(d) * P(e) * P(f)
where the probabilities are based on your sample
ie( if a is 6 and 6 has been drawn 1 time in the last 50 draws then
P(a) = P(6) = 1/50

If 2...

Just calculate the probability of each number being drawn based on
your sample and choose the highest 6.

Just FYI, I have no idea how many numbers are drawn in mega ball?
I don't know anything about that particular lottery...

Final question, in your sample data why are their two sets of data
(upper section and lower section).

Dan E
 
the first 5 balls are drawn from a pool of 52 balls number 1-52
the sixth ball is drawn from a seperate pool of 52 balls number 1-52
 
...
...
The best that can be done is to analyze the data set
(numbers drawn) to come up with a best educated guess. And
the best educated guess fails 99.999999~% of the time.
Click to expand...
...

More accurately, the best educated guess has precisely the same probability of
being the winning combination as pure wild-ass guessing (meaning the most
*effiecient* method of picking numbers is pure wild-ass guessing). That is, each
successive draw is independent of all preceding draws *unless* there are
measurable aerodynamic differences between balls with different numbers that are
consistent among balls with the same number used in different draws.
Establishing that requires far more than 50 historical samples of 6 balls each.
 
Hi Harlan,

There are patterns that can be observed. The problem is
that by the time you notice them so has the lottery
authority!

Biff
 
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