What scares me, is that it's likely that many future technology
changes like this will be shaped not only by technical considerations.
Rather, a major goal will be to think-up something that some other
idiot hasn't already thought-up, patented, and looking to hold the
world hostage for.
People have been trying to do that in the computer business
essentially forever. Interoperable standards that really work are,
IMHO, no older than the PC business. With such a large commodity
market, people who decide to do their own thing had better be prepared
really to go it alone--a very difficult thing to do in a truly
commodity market.
People have an exaggerated fear of Intel. As has been repeatedly
demonstrated, Intel cannot do whatever it damn well pleases. It
operates as part of an ecological system to which it cannot
unilaterally dictate, much as it might like to.
Witness the failure to impose Rambus and the failure to hold back a
move to a 64-bit ISA for x86. And this particular development
happened in cooperation with two memory makers (_not_ another pure IP
company--lesson learned).
It is absolutely true: Intel has played games with interconnect
standards and is headed toward a proprietary on-board interconnect.
Some of the game-playing Intel has done with interconnect standards
has gored _my_ ox and held back probably for years the development of
true commodity high-speed low-latency board to board interconnects.
It is _very_ clear that Intel would like to extend its proprietary
influence beyond the proprietary CPU interconnect as far as it
possibly can. It has even said as much
http://www.computerworld.com/networkingtopics/networking/story/0,10801,90031,00.html
Try as it might, it won't succeed. Anybody who tries and succeeds is
a niche market player and isn't going to hold the whole world hostage.
In the end, as George Macdonald has correctly pointed out, Intel's
business model is to sell zillions of whatever it is. It's really
hard to do that and hold the whole world hostage at the same time.
IBM mastered the art of charging enormous premiums for
highly-specialized boxes, and even IBM can't even come close to
getting by on that kind of business anymore. The closest anyone has
come in the PC era is Microsoft, and Microsoft's empire is crumbling,
even with the help of some of the sleaziest business tactics I've ever
seen from another player in the industry who need not be named.
RM