Commodity processors: coming soon?

  • Thread starter Thread starter tony
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tony

Is it possible for some company (not Intel or AMD of course, probably not even VIA)
to produce a $10 or $20 processor? The "internet appliance" machine (from Walmart?)
could use one of those. Can't someone go back to old technology (not 45nm!) and
make the cheap part?

Tony
 
Is it possible for some company (not Intel or AMD of course, probably not even VIA)
to produce a $10 or $20 processor? The "internet appliance" machine (from Walmart?)
could use one of those. Can't someone go back to old technology (not 45nm!) and
make the cheap part?

Tony
Click to expand...

Heck, for $10 and free shipping you can get a new 500mhz Celeron *today*, and
with a one year warranty, no less.

Next question.
 
Heck, for $10 and free shipping you can get a new 500mhz Celeron *today*, and
with a one year warranty, no less.

Next question.
Click to expand...

LOL! I wuz going to sell him a sample from my M1 collection. ...I think
I still have one around somewhere. ...or maybe an 80C51FC (hey, they were
$250 each when I bought 'em). ;-)
 
daytripper said:
Heck, for $10 and free shipping you can get a new 500mhz Celeron *today*, and
with a one year warranty, no less.
Click to expand...

That's only until the stock runs out I imagine. The question I was asking was for high
volume commercial production.

Tony
 
tony said:
That's only until the stock runs out I imagine. The question I was asking was for high
volume commercial production.

Tony
Click to expand...
"Yes, I think it can be easily done..." r. zimmerman

But it would have to be intel or one of their cross licensee's. Pick
your favorite old time vintage 180 nm part and build something similar
in 90 nm, being sure to get the pins down so the substrate is also
cheap. Solder directly to board to save socket cost.

The trick is finding someone to put up the millions of dollars of nre to
get the cost of the part down.
 
Keith said:
(e-mail address removed) says...
Click to expand...
Then, no. The pins cost more than that.
Click to expand...

Why do you say that? 10c/pin? The 486 has 168 pins, and I'm
fairly certain could be produced for under $10. Use modern tech
and not bleeding-edge process, it should be clockable around 1 GHz.
I don't even think that much would be needed with decent software.

It wouldn't even come close to VIA C3, but with enough memory
it'd be enough to run a web browser appliance. A web toaster.
Buy at WalMart. Plug into cable & TV (svideo). IR kbd/trakball
& go. Calls into the mfr website for flash EEPROM updates.

After all, some of these 200 MHz ARM cellphones have browsers!

-- Robert
 
Robert said:
Why do you say that? 10c/pin? The 486 has 168 pins, and I'm
fairly certain could be produced for under $10. Use modern tech
and not bleeding-edge process, it should be clockable around 1 GHz.
I don't even think that much would be needed with decent software.

It wouldn't even come close to VIA C3, but with enough memory
it'd be enough to run a web browser appliance. A web toaster.
Buy at WalMart. Plug into cable & TV (svideo). IR kbd/trakball
& go. Calls into the mfr website for flash EEPROM updates.

After all, some of these 200 MHz ARM cellphones have browsers!

-- Robert
Click to expand...
Don't need pins. Put on solder bumps and solder down. Are you building
a "thin client" or a PC? And what else do you need? It would surprise
me if the parts cost of one of those Dell 299 PC boxes is over 100
bucks, but maybe that isn't what you want. What is the parts cost of a
webtv box? Isn't that what you are advocating?
 
Is it possible for some company (not Intel or AMD of course, probably
not even VIA) to produce a $10 or $20 processor?
Click to expand...

The $100 laptop people ( http://www.laptop.org/ ) like the the
AMD Geode GX500. At least in significant volume it must be in
that pricing ballpark.
 
Don't need pins. Put on solder bumps and solder down.
Click to expand...

BGA is only marginally cheaper than pins. You still have to
connect chip pads with something bigger. Flip chip helps.
Are you building a "thin client" or a PC?
Click to expand...

Appliance PCs are more like smart clients. They're a full PC
as far as external machines are concerned. No troublesome
extra support required. No forced portals or render farms.
But with very limited local functionality.
It would surprise me if the parts cost of one of those
Dell 299 PC boxes is over 100 bucks,
Click to expand...

AFIAK, MS-WinXP costs Dell ~$80, support ???. Price the parts out,
I don't think you can build for less than $150. Look at XBox1.

These toasters could be build around $100, or $50 in quantity:
No drives. Ultra cheap CPU (maybe not x86), 128 MB RAM (maybe
less), 64 MB flash video & sound, built in DOCSIS or DSL modem.
IR kbd/tb. Sealed box. Maybe with USB for expansion/drives.
What is the parts cost of a webtv box?
Isn't that what you are advocating?
Click to expand...

I don't think so. AFAIK, webTV is reliant on WebTV render servers.
You're tied to them, and I don't think peope like being tied.
For those that do, AOL could give away (bundle) a customized box.

Svideo renders 640x480 surprisingly well even on NTSC TVs.
The real problem is that people may not want to browse/email in
a group.

-- Robert
 
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Svideo renders 640x480 surprisingly well even on NTSC TVs.
The real problem is that people may not want to browse/email in
a group.
Click to expand...

There's a fair chance that the people who'd buy a cheap web/mail box
wouldn't have a TV that supports S-video input. You'd want to design it to
be legible over a composite-video connection (it can be done...TiVo is a
fairly good example here).

_/_
/ v \ Scott Alfter (remove the obvious to send mail)
(IIGS( http://alfter.us/ Top-posting!
\_^_/ rm -rf /bin/laden >What's the most annoying thing on Usenet?

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Del Cecchi said:
"Yes, I think it can be easily done..." r. zimmerman

But it would have to be intel or one of their cross licensee's. Pick your favorite old time vintage 180 nm part and build
something similar in 90 nm, being sure to get the pins down so the substrate is also cheap. Solder directly to board to
save socket cost.
Click to expand...

That was going to be my next question: how much would a soldered-on
processor reduce the cost of a motherboard? It seems to me, in these
days where processor speed is "irrelevant", that the socket is an
unnecessary expense. I'd expect the option for selection of processor
speeds to soon disappear from the purchasing process too.

Tony
 
That was going to be my next question: how much would a soldered-on
processor reduce the cost of a motherboard? It seems to me, in these
days where processor speed is "irrelevant", that the socket is an
unnecessary expense. I'd expect the option for selection of processor
speeds to soon disappear from the purchasing process too.
Click to expand...

A soldered-on processor screws up the whole x86 market, at least
general-purpose x86 market (may work for embedded markets like
TiVo-like thingys). We've already noted that motherboard makers
make little or no money. They can't afford to carry the processor
inventory, when their margins are already near zero. Also,
processors are speed sorted allowing higher yield. Limiting speed
sorts would reduce yield and drive up costs (precisely what you're
trying to avoid). Soldering the processor onto the motherboard
forces the decision to supply these sorts up the manufacturing
chain from the box builder to the motherboard maker, where there is
already no money. Think of the number of hands that have to
"carry" this extra cost. What if they guess wrong?

Soldered-on processors work in a vertical business (e.g. Apple),
but not in the far more horizontal PC business.
 
Is it possible for some company (not Intel or AMD of course, probably
not even VIA) to produce a $10 or $20 processor? The "internet
appliance" machine (from Walmart?) could use one of those. Can't someone
go back to old technology (not 45nm!) and make the cheap part?
Click to expand...

its ARM9 price range, there are plenty of those, add cheap graphical
processor, ram, flash .. and you end up with WEBTV box, just like
http://mirror.toc2rta.com/index.php/Main_Page
or NetGem NetBOX (mine is running Debian)
or Tivo
or ..
people (people as your mom) do not want those, end of story.
 
Is it possible for some company (not Intel or AMD of course, probably not even VIA)
to produce a $10 or $20 processor? The "internet appliance" machine (from Walmart?)
could use one of those. Can't someone go back to old technology (not 45nm!) and
make the cheap part?

Tony
Click to expand...

Why bother? P3-class boxes are getting dumped and can be picked for
free these days. Ditto 15" and even 17" monitors (CRT, not LCD of
course). For Web/Email/Office these have plenty of power. And no
Walmart, no cheapest Chinese manufacturer can beat the price of
*free*.

NNN
 
[email protected] said:
Why bother? P3-class boxes are getting dumped and can be picked for
free these days. Ditto 15" and even 17" monitors (CRT, not LCD of
course). For Web/Email/Office these have plenty of power. And no
Walmart, no cheapest Chinese manufacturer can beat the price of
*free*.
Click to expand...

Again, the "used" or "leftover" scenario was not the question asked. The question
was about the potential of producing commodity processors in commodity PeeCees
that are more than adequate computing devices (perhaps for certain, even mainstream
scenarios). $2k-$3k media PCs is a failed concept if you ask me. "Better" and yet
"cheaper" wins! Who will do it? (My guess is Walmart!)

Tony
 
Again, the "used" or "leftover" scenario was not the question asked. The question
was about the potential of producing commodity processors in commodity PeeCees
that are more than adequate computing devices (perhaps for certain, even mainstream
scenarios). $2k-$3k media PCs is a failed concept if you ask me. "Better" and yet
"cheaper" wins! Who will do it? (My guess is Walmart!)
Click to expand...

Yeah, Walmart has some bleeding-edge fabs and an army of processor
developers just waiting for something to do. Sheesh! ...you are a maroon!
 
Robert Redelmeier said:
BGA is only marginally cheaper than pins. You still have to
connect chip pads with something bigger. Flip chip helps.
Click to expand...

You could do flip chip on board, or some organic substrate.
Appliance PCs are more like smart clients. They're a full PC
as far as external machines are concerned. No troublesome
extra support required. No forced portals or render farms.
But with very limited local functionality.


AFIAK, MS-WinXP costs Dell ~$80, support ???. Price the parts out,
I don't think you can build for less than $150. Look at XBox1.
Click to expand...

I wasn't counting XP as a "part", I was thinking hardware. We all know
that the cost of xp is next to nothing. The price is different. :-)
 
Who will do it? (My guess is Walmart!)
Click to expand...

nobody
Producing computer = labour cost, no matter the quality(Chinese
"quality")/speed/price of said computer.
Cheaper computer = smaller margin. It's suicide, only DELL does that with
almost free Celerons and XP.
 
Again, the "used" or "leftover" scenario was not the question asked. The question
was about the potential of producing commodity processors in commodity PeeCees
that are more than adequate computing devices (perhaps for certain, even mainstream
scenarios). $2k-$3k media PCs is a failed concept if you ask me. "Better" and yet
"cheaper" wins! Who will do it? (My guess is Walmart!)
Click to expand...

You know that Walmart doesn't actually make anything, right? They
sell stuff that other people make for them under contract, and make a
profit in the process.

You might want to run some numbers on the cost of making CPUs (fab
costs, capitol equipment, consumables, labor, etc) - estimates of
these numbers are readily available on the 'net.

Then look at what it would take to pay the ongoing costs and
depreciation with the profit margins on a $20 CPU, and estimate how
many you'd have to sell just to break even. I don't think you'd have
a business plan that would attract much venture capital.
 
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