AMD is doomed!

  • Thread starter Thread starter Yousuf Khan
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Yousuf Khan

CoolTechZone.com - Is AMD Doomed?
"The thing I find most interesting in this battle of silicon supremacy
is just how unbelievably thick (or perhaps slow) AMD has been lately.
For the entire life cycle of the Pentium 4 family, AMD was far ahead.
The company made the best processors in terms of performance with cost
efficiency in mind. However, it had a nice 1-1.5 years of time span
where it could’ve evolved or innovated enough, but it didn’t. Granted
that AMD is still leading the desktop and server markets in terms of
performance, it’s not the point. The point is the lack of evolution and
innovation from AMD."
http://www.cooltechzone.com/Departments/Featured_Story/Is_AMD_Doomed?_200602272202/
 
CoolTechZone.com - Is AMD Doomed?
"The thing I find most interesting in this battle of silicon supremacy
is just how unbelievably thick (or perhaps slow) AMD has been lately.
For the entire life cycle of the Pentium 4 family, AMD was far ahead.
The company made the best processors in terms of performance with cost
efficiency in mind. However, it had a nice 1-1.5 years of time span
where it could’ve evolved or innovated enough, but it didn’t. Granted
that AMD is still leading the desktop and server markets in terms of
performance, it’s not the point. The point is the lack of evolution and
innovation from AMD."
http://www.cooltechzone.com/Departments/Featured_Story/Is_AMD_Doomed?_200602272202/
Click to expand...


Sell your AMD while it's still in the 40s.
Ed
 
Ed said:
Sell your AMD while it's still in the 40s.
Ed
Click to expand...
Google the author. He seems to make a hobby of flamebait articles.

His name is Varun Dubey. I wonder if he gets paid by the hit?
 
Why? We bought in the 3s - 10s. ...made at least 6x our money over eight
years, even with *conservative* investment. If AMD dips into the 20's
it's simply time to double-up! ;-)
Google the author. He seems to make a hobby of flamebait articles.
Click to expand...

AMD seems to have caught the attention of the pump-n-dumpers.
His name is Varun Dubey. I wonder if he gets paid by the hit?
Click to expand...

"hit"? Interesting visual, but "Dubey" doesn't sound Sicilian.
 
Keith said:
Why? We bought in the 3s - 10s. ...made at least 6x our money over
eight
years, even with *conservative* investment. If AMD dips into the 20's
it's simply time to double-up! ;-)


AMD seems to have caught the attention of the pump-n-dumpers.


"hit"? Interesting visual, but "Dubey" doesn't sound Sicilian.
Click to expand...

I'm the one with the name ending in a vowel, and I was talking about Page
Hits. And Dubey apparently lives in India, dreaming of fame and
fortune on the world wide web and the money he will make from his famous
web site with all the page views from this flamebait he puts out there.

That is the only reason I can conceive for the stuff he says.

PS I did better than AMD on Perficient PRFT.

del cecchi
 
Del said:
I'm the one with the name ending in a vowel, and I was talking about Page
Hits. And Dubey apparently lives in India, dreaming of fame and
fortune on the world wide web and the money he will make from his famous
web site with all the page views from this flamebait he puts out there.

That is the only reason I can conceive for the stuff he says.

PS I did better than AMD on Perficient PRFT.
Click to expand...

Actually it's the whole Cooltechzone.com website, there are other
authors there doing the exact same job, not just Dubey. Well, I had a
lot of trouble getting to their website yesterday, the page would
sometimes load, sometimes not. A lot of retries needed. If they're going
by page hits, then they better have a server capable of keeping up with
them.

But the ultimate hitman is still Ed Stroglio over at Overclockers.

Yousuf Khan
 
Why? We bought in the 3s - 10s. ...made at least 6x our money over eight
years, even with *conservative* investment. If AMD dips into the 20's
it's simply time to double-up! ;-)
Click to expand...

Great, I bought and sold AMD 3 times since it was $3, last was 14-16 and
sold @40 for 85K profit. I'll buy back in on AMD's next upswing. :)

Good Luck All!
Ed
 
Ed said:
Great, I bought and sold AMD 3 times since it was $3, last was 14-16 and
sold @40 for 85K profit. I'll buy back in on AMD's next upswing. :)
Click to expand...

It got hammered down below $39 for some reason today. You could tell it
was coming because it was trading flat for the past week or so. Usually
it should be making steady progress upwards, but it hadn't done that
for too long.

Either it went down because people are starting to believe that Intel's
next gen chips are actually going to be faster than AMD's, or people
are just bailing because they were on margin for too long.

Yousuf Khan
 
YKhan said:
It got hammered down below $39 for some reason today. You could tell it
was coming because it was trading flat for the past week or so. Usually
it should be making steady progress upwards, but it hadn't done that
for too long.

Either it went down because people are starting to believe that Intel's
next gen chips are actually going to be faster than AMD's, or people
are just bailing because they were on margin for too long.

Yousuf Khan
Click to expand...
Well, AMD pe ratio is 97, and Intel is 15. Given that they are in the
same business.... more or less....
 
Well, AMD pe ratio is 97, and Intel is 15. Given that they are in the
same business.... more or less....
Click to expand...

I believe the 'E' part of AMD's numbers still includes Spansion's
losses. Though 15 is pretty low for Intel too, indicating that the
street doesn't believe there is any growth ahead for Intel.
 
Del said:
Well, AMD pe ratio is 97, and Intel is 15. Given that they are in the
same business.... more or less....
Click to expand...

Well, that's better than the PE they had last quarter when one website,
Yahoo, was listing AMD's PE as over 400 (in Google's territory)! That
was prior to Spansion being sold off. Also the Earnings are based on a
consensus estimate of analysts covering AMD. For the past several
quarters, all of the analysts have severely underestimated AMD's
earnings by a big margin. And they're expected to underestimate it
again. The real PE is probably closer to 40.

Last quarter, Intel's PE was around 30, the current PE of 15 is probably
a result of the funk it went into after missing its earnings last quarter.

Yousuf Khan
 
Yousuf Khan said:
Well, that's better than the PE they had last quarter when one website,
Yahoo, was listing AMD's PE as over 400 (in Google's territory)! That
was prior to Spansion being sold off. Also the Earnings are based on a
consensus estimate of analysts covering AMD. For the past several
quarters, all of the analysts have severely underestimated AMD's
earnings by a big margin. And they're expected to underestimate it
again. The real PE is probably closer to 40.

Last quarter, Intel's PE was around 30, the current PE of 15 is
probably a result of the funk it went into after missing its earnings
last quarter.
Click to expand...
Sorry charlie. The PE of 106 for AMD is actual TTM (Trailing Twelve
Months) from Yahoo finance. Forward is supposed to be 21 something for
period ending Christmas 07d. Corresponding INTC numbers are both around
14.

del
 
Sorry charlie. The PE of 106 for AMD is actual TTM (Trailing Twelve
Months) from Yahoo finance. Forward is supposed to be 21 something for
period ending Christmas 07d. Corresponding INTC numbers are both around
14.
Click to expand...

But TTM includes Spansion Spinoff, no? A P/E of twentyish is what I'd
expect from a tech. Fourteen sucks!
 
Keith said:
But TTM includes Spansion Spinoff, no? A P/E of twentyish is what I'd
expect from a tech. Fourteen sucks!
Click to expand...

Actually as I read it, spansion was profitable but there was about a 20
cent charge in 4q due to the ipo. So maybe pe is 60 or 70 "pro forma"

Looks like AMD pe is higher than (or at least equal to) google. who'da
thunk it.

del cecchi
 
Actually as I read it, spansion was profitable but there was about a 20
cent charge in 4q due to the ipo. So maybe pe is 60 or 70 "pro forma"
Click to expand...

What was spun off into Spansion, IIRC, hasn't been profitable in a half
dozen years. Teh spin-off might have brought cash to the table, but the
Spansion operations themselves were a loser over the past year.
Looks like AMD pe is higher than (or at least equal to) google. who'da
thunk it.
Click to expand...

I don't believe that to be true. Higher than Intel, to be sure. Note
that IBM is in the 16 range. Big isn't necessarily good, rather the
opposite. It's hard to grow (GOOG has this problem, in spades).
 
Keith said:
What was spun off into Spansion, IIRC, hasn't been profitable in a half
dozen years. Teh spin-off might have brought cash to the table, but the
Spansion operations themselves were a loser over the past year.



I don't believe that to be true. Higher than Intel, to be sure. Note
that IBM is in the 16 range. Big isn't necessarily good, rather the
opposite. It's hard to grow (GOOG has this problem, in spades).
Click to expand...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=GOOG
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 72.73
Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-07) 1: 30.28

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AMD
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 108.91
Forward P/E (fye 25-Dec-07) 1: 22.08

Looks higher or comparable to me. I am not sure how to adjust the ttm
for spansion. As I say, looking at AMD earnings statements it appears
that spansion was profitable over the past year but that there was a
charge in the 4th quarter due to the IPO. I could easily be totally
confused, however. The above numbers are straight outa yahoo finance.

del
 
Del Cecchi said:
Looks higher or comparable to me. I am not sure how to adjust the ttm
for spansion. As I say, looking at AMD earnings statements it appears
that spansion was profitable over the past year but that there was a
charge in the 4th quarter due to the IPO. I could easily be totally
confused, however. The above numbers are straight outa yahoo finance.
Click to expand...

You are seriously confused.

From the most recent 10-k the memory products group lost 311M in 2005.
Take out that loss, and operating income would jump from 232M to 543M.
There are all sorts of tax issues going on, so I don't know exactly
how it would affect the bottom line, but it is a huge difference.
There was also a 110M charge related to the IPO, which I assume was
not included in the 311M, but I haven't double-checked. Also, some
interest costs for Spansion-related debt will go away from AMD.


Eddie


http://amd.edgarpro.com/redirect_fr...rtBy=receivedate&AD=D&startrec=1&res=25&pdf=0


2005 2004 2003
(In millions)

Net sales


Computation Products Group
$ 3,793 $ 2,528 $ 1,960

Memory Products Group
1,913 2,342 1,419

Personal Connectivity Solutions Group
136 131 140

All Other
6 %G—%@ %G—%@

Total Net Sales
$ 5,848 5,001 3,519

Operating income (loss)


Computation Products Group
$ 617 $ 266 $ (32 )

Memory Products Group
(311 ) 35 (190 )

Personal Connectivity Solutions Group
(55 ) (54 ) (12 )

All Other
(19 ) (25 ) 1

Total Operating Income (Loss)
$ 232 $ 222 $ (233 )
 
Either it went down because people are starting to believe that Intel's
next gen chips are actually going to be faster than AMD's, or people
are just bailing because they were on margin for too long.

Yousuf Khan
Click to expand...

AMD64 is dead, dead, dead! ;)
Ed
 
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